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Expand inside need to break through " China to hire guest " problem only without

From;  Author:Stand originally

What the stock market reforms is dear affect compatriots nerve, such, it is the stock market allegedly low confuse be a burden on consumption, and start inside needing is urgent affairs. Traditional theory thinks, the stock market has wealth effect. So-called money effect is to point to, on money market, the fortune of financial capital holder and financial asset value become direct ratio. Fortune rise or drop and drop of the price as asset, produce stimulation or low-key effect to consumption then.

In traditional economics theory, offset of change of stock market price expends the influence of demand to basically pass two respects to conduct. It is to pass the asset wealth that affects a resident to stimulate consumption directly. Of stock price go up continuously the fictitious fortune that raise makes investor is had increases, make investor raises consumptive pay thereby, this is effect of alleged and direct wealth. 2 it is to pass those who affect customer to anticipate indirect stimulation is consumed. Of stock price rise to be brought to investor anticipate goodly, macroscopical economy may take people judgement future strong, to opportunity of prospective obtain employment rise to all have with the growth of labor income anticipate hopefully, raise consumptive pay thereby, this is effect of alleged and indirect wealth.

The current situation of Chinese stock market is, up to by December 2005, the total market prise of Chinese stock market is 400 billion dollar about, will look with respect to world standard, this one cost is not high, rank the world only the 19th; The blame that if be deducted again,makes an appointment with 2/3 is current and state-owned, market prise will decrease to be not worth 130 billion dollar. Since June 2001, chinese market had dropped 43.5% , dropped last year only nearly 10% . Then the person that talk thinks according to the wealth effect of stock market, the long-term be issued to lower levels of the stock market brings about shareholder wealth considerably shrink, restrained the shareholder's consumption greatly then, that is to say, of stock market dispirited what should need internally is fatigued and weak have cannot the responsibility of shirk. If it is so?

From the point of home, a large number of demonstration consider to make clear, chinese stock market does not have direct wealth effect and indirect wealth effect. The scholar thinks by Chinese stock market special current situation causes this. Main reason has stock market dimensions narrow, market moves not stable, appear on the market company quality is low and no less than house of venture of ethics of business of excessive speculation, certificate is tall waiting for. So, develop with stock market, is the developed country circumstance that the United States with superintendency perfect system heads how?

The person such as Carl Keyes is opposite American economist 1975-1999 of 14 developed countries year year data, and to American 1982-1999 year quarterly data undertook examining, of these two groups of data examine to make clear as a result, consumptive change and stock market money have nothing to do. What deserve attention particularly is the United States, the Dow-jones Average is in January 4, 1982 is 882.52 bits, and to December 31, 1992 criterion violent wind rises come to rank the apogee of odd-numbered days closing quotation of the 8th 11497.12 a little bit up to now, the index rose 13 times much, and the corresponding period is consumed however to it not relevant, it is surprising really. Examine to still make clear as a result, the metabolic positive of consumption and money of house of the corresponding period closes, this, the mystery " of current to the United States " stockpile made very good explanation.
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