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Chinese estate draws near periodic low ebb 2009 is trough critical point

From;  Author:Stand originally
Chinese estate value since 1998, continuously with per cent 7 years the rate of two digit rises. Come from 2002 in April 2005, countrywide residence uses the land average price index is in 5 years rose 54.2% , price of estate of Beijing, Shanghai, spic, deep and other places all rises one times above, hangzhou exceeded 200% . This has openly impetus among them, if purchasing power of economic progress, dweller increases, town of change of supply demand relations, country is changed etc, but meantime also contain is worn the element that is not rational prosperity in great quantities. World experience makes clear, the part of blame reason prosperity of estate is too large, form bubble easily, but also make clear at the same time, the periodic rule of the estate that monitor will is beneficial to be on guard risk.


Japanese economy 15 years painful


Alive bound limits, the case that causes financial venture by estate bubble is quite bitter, affect the biggest blame Japan case to not be belonged to among them.


Go up century 80 time later period, japanese economy picks up quickly, appeared the rare prosperity on the history period. Japanese central bank develops continuously to stimulate economy, adopted very loose banking policy, these capital basically flowed into real estate, cause real-estate spurt in prices.


Since 1986, japan is in 5 years short, price rose 2 times much. Among them 1987, business the ground and residence used year of ascendant rate of price pattern to exceed 76% even. The investigation all computation that occupies Japan earth hall additionally to announce is occupied, 1985, what the capital of a country east is business price pattern index is 120.1, but arrived to soared 1988 334.2, 3 years soare nearly 2 times. The price index of 6 big cities of Japanese, going up century 10 years of 80 time rose 5 times, amount of price market prise is as high as 4.0001E16 yen, be equivalent to 4 times of American price total value, land unit price is 100 times of the United States. 1990, only east the land price that the price of Kyoto is equivalent to American whole nation.


1991, burst of Japanese estate bubble, cause Japanese economy more than 10 years to come cannot recover after a setback. Of estate value steep fall bring about the big, medium, small company with closer real estate of a few sortie to close down in succession. Only 2000, include estate business inside construction industry has many 6000 company to go bankrupt, occupy go bankrupt in those days 33.6% of company number. 2002, japan has 28 to appear on the market the company closes down, having 1/3 above among them is estate company, achieve afterwar appear on the market the record that the enterprise closes down. Japanese economy entered afterwar last a period of time the longest " make the same score depression " period.


Estate bubble is undone and direct caused Japan's severe financial crisis. Arrive from 1991 2000, deficit of developed country finance all has different level to drop to appear even profit, deficit of alone Japan finance by 0.8% jump for 10.1% , still appeared at the same time deflationary with financial crisis. A estate bubble is undone immediate consequence, it is to give financial industry to bring many slow-witted bad Zhang. Bank of the bank of Japanese extended credit in 10 big banks of Japanese, Japanese bond credit and bank of Hokkaido develop breed close down in succession, in of small finance orgnaization going bankrupt is consecutive more, financial system is acuteness and queasy.
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